Why Did Napoli ($NAP) Jump 18% Despite Defeat in Naples?

Arsenal defeated Napoli in their Champions League opener, but the Napoli Fan Token® ($NAP) still recorded more price gains and more trade volume than $AFC.

Arsenal opened their Champions League campaign with a 1–0 victory over Napoli on Wednesday night, courtesy of a 75th-minute Martin Ødegaard strike, yet the outcome of the result on Fan Token® markets was anything but predictable.

By the morning after Arsenal’s victory in Naples, the trajectory of the Napoli Fan Token® ($NAP) had climbed, while the Arsenal Fan Token® ($AFC) continued to lag.

So why the discrepancy between the token prices and the results on the night? Read on to find out.

Napoli ($NAP) Price Climbs 18.5% Despite Loss

By the morning of Thursday, Sept. 10, the valuation of the Napoli Fan Token® ($NAP) had climbed 18.5%, from a spot price of $0.199 to $0.236.

The token’s trade volume also rose by 700%, climbing from $250,000 to just over $2.2M by time of writing.

The overnight surge leaves the $NAP token price up 18.5% for the week overall. Pulling back to the quarterly view, we see that $NAP’s price has quietly gained 28% over the past three months.

Arsenal ($AFC) Price Lags Despite Napoli Win

By the morning after the game, the price of the Arsenal Fan Token® ($AFC) had fallen by a modest 1.2%, from $0.166 to $0.164, despite the brief, late spike seen below.

The value of $AFC actually increased by 1.2% prior to kickoff, increasing from the price it eventually returned to by Thursday morning.

Trade volume for $AFC hovered around $150,000 before the game started, and had risen to around $250,000 by time of writing.

Explaining the Discrepancy Between $NAP and $AFC Trading

The figures above should not necessarily be interpreted as evidence that Napoli’s defeat somehow benefited $NAP.

Much of the activity had already begun before kickoff. On Wednesday morning, $NAP was up 2% over 24 hours and its trade volume had begun to rise, suggesting that anticipation surrounding the match was already attracting traders.

Ultimately, the difference between the tokens’ expected reaction and what actually occurred partly demonstrates why Fan Token® markets cannot be explained solely through football results.

The underdog narrative surrounding Napoli provided another possible catalyst. Traders had more reason to anticipate a pronounced reaction if the Italian side produced an upset, whereas Arsenal entered the match as last season’s Champions League finalists and clear favourites.

Market size may have also contributed. $NAP has a market capitalisation of approximately $1.45M, compared with $4.07M for $AFC. Smaller assets tend to experience sharper percentage movements when trading activity increases.

Finally, given $NAP’s quiet 28% gains registered over the past quarter, today’s price movements could be representative of the continued repricing of the asset ahead of the new season.

As one of Serie A’s regular title contenders in recent years (winning it as recently as two seasons ago), Napoli could currently appear undervalued in the eyes of traders.

Greg Thomson: Fan Token® Market Reporter