Underdog Bite: The Case for Italy ($ITA) at the 2026 World Cup

Underdog specialists Italy are at their best with their backs against the wall. Could this un-fancied team spring a surprise at the upcoming World Cup?

Italy have yet to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. First they have to overcome Northern Ireland in a qualifying match, and should they win, they must beat the winners of Wales vs Bosnia and Herzegovina.

If that chain of events occurs, there’s a strong argument to be made for the Azzurri at the 2026 World Cup.

Few national teams can claim to excel when given the underdog label as much as Italy. History shows Italy perform at their best when the world is against them. 

So let’s take a look at the potential for Italian success at the 2026 World Cup, and see how it might boost the fortunes of the Italian National Team Fan Token ($ITA).

Siege Mentality: Italy Love Being Underdogs

It’s almost as though Italy need everyone to be against them for their best form to emerge. 

Italy’s 1982 World Cup win was coloured by the 1980 Totonero match-fixing scandal, which resulted in their star player Paolo Rossi being banned. Eventually, Rossi’s ban was reduced and his return inspired Italy to the third of their four World Cup wins. 

Likewise, Italy’s 2006 World Cup win occurred off the back of the Calciopoli scandal, which tainted Italian football in the eyes of the world. Yet, despite this – or perhaps, because of it – Italy went on to win the competition for the fourth time.

While there are no clear scandals to inspire Italy this time around, the fact is that they are not among the tournament favourites (Spain, England, France and Brazil are the bookies’ odds-leaders), and this lack of belief could easily light a fire under the Italians and bring out their best form. 

Tournament DNA: Midfield Control

Cast your mind back to Italy’s 2020 Euro Championship win and you’ll see that their success in the tournament was down to tight, secure midfield control, helped by players like Barella, Jorginho and Verratti.

Italy’s midfield control proved too much for England in the final, and effectively nullified England’s arguably stronger attacking forces of Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling, Bukayo Saka, and Marcus Rashford. 

In one-off tournament matches, slow, methodical midfield control can prove more effective than mercurial attacking moments, and combined with the Italian defensive DNA, this kind of midfield dominance could prove key to progressing far in the forthcoming World Cup. 

This time around, Italy’s midfield features smart, technical players like Tonali, Frattesi and Locatelli, as well as Barella, who could prove essential to providing the midfield control that took Italy to the 2020 Euros title.

The World’s Best Shot-Stopper?

For the past 20 years, Italian No.1 Gianluigi Buffon was widely regarded as the best goalkeeper in the world, and perhaps one of the very best of all time.

Now, Italy have a new Gianluigi in the No.1 spot in the form of Gianluigi Donnarumma. 

Donnarumma’s not too far off reaching the legendary status of his predecessor, having played for arguably the two best teams in the world in recent years in Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City (as well as Italian giants AC Milan).

While Donnarumma isn’t regarded as a modern, ball-playing keeper, that might turn out to be an advantage when the 2026 World Cup kicks off.

Given the knockout structure of tournament football, safe, secure shot-stoppers like Donnarumma may prove to be more valuable than keepers who can play with the ball at their feet.

A New Era: Gattuso at the Wheel

Italy have failed to qualify for the past two World Cups under the guidance of Gian Piero Ventura and Roberto Mancini, losing in the play-offs to Sweden and North Macedonia, respectively.

Now, the team has a former World Cup winner (and double Champions League winner) at the helm in the form of Gennaro Gattuso, a hard-working ex-Milan midfielder from a small fishing village, who maintains that if he didn’t make it as a footballer, he’d still be working on the fishing boats right now.

Gattuso brings an intense, no-excuses culture to his managerial role, and this is one that Italy fans hope will rub off on the players. 

Teams competing at short tournament competitions like the World Cup often benefit from having motivational leaders at the helm as opposed to tactic-focused coaches. 

With an 83% win percentage already (5W, 1L), the inspiration that flows from Gattuso could prove key to Italian success at the upcoming World Cup.

Italian National Team Fan Token ($ITA)

In the past month or so, the valuation of the Italian National Team Fan Token ($ITA) has increased by 69% – climbing from $0.195 up to $0.33. 

On Jan. 13 the $ITA price peaked at $0.40 before falling back. Since then it has restarted its ascension, gaining 6.5% in the past week. 

Ultimately, the valuation of $ITA has been on the up since early December, and traders would do well to keep an eye on it as we move closer to the 2026 World Cup.

Risks to Consider

The fact remains that Italy have not yet qualified for the 2026 World Cup, and first must overcome Northern Ireland, and then the winner of the Wales vs Bosnia and Herzegovina match.

Additionally, the fact that Italy stumbled at the play-off stage on their way to the last two World Cups presents a bad omen. 

Finally, whether Gattuso’s intense, battle-like personality can imprint itself on the team in time for the World Cup remains to be seen.