How New Manager Bounces Can Propel Football Fan Tokens

It is not uncommon for the arrival of a new manager to result in an uptick in form, and one corollary of that is renewed confidence in a team’s Fan Token. 

After the sacking of Thomas Frank at Tottenham Hotspur, one wonders whether this pattern could be about to repeat itself.

What is a “New Manager Bounce” and Why Does It Happen?

The so-called new manager bounce is a trend that sees a team’s performances improve under the stewardship of a new boss.

Since the arrival of a new manager typically follows a period of bad results, this ‘bounce’ is analogous to the recovery of a digital asset after reaching a bottom.

Earlier this year, a BBC article cited data showing that of the previous 30 permanent managerial appointments in the Premier League, 18 had bettered their team’s points tally in their opening five league fixtures, versus the last five under the outgoing boss.

A new manager bounce isn’t a given, of course: there are times when new bosses fail to arrest a team’s terminal decline and are themselves summarily dismissed in due course. 

As for why new manager bounces happen, there are different schools of thought. Some think the departure of an unsuccessful boss is more important than the arrival of a new one, energizing players disaffected by the old guard. Sometimes, the fresh perspective and tactics of an incoming boss is enough to turn a team’s form around.

Which Fan Tokens Have Reacted to a Managerial Change?

On a number of occasions, a new manager bounce has led to a notable appreciation of the Fan Token in question.

On July 4, 2023 Monaco appointed Adi Hütter, who had won the Austrian double with Red Bull Salzburg as well as the Swiss Super League with Young Boys. On that day, the price of the AS Monaco Fan Token ($ASM) was $1.01, yet by the end of the month it had risen to $1.27, a jump of 25.7%.

Interestingly, the mere arrival of Hütter was enough to boost sentiment in the markets, as his first game in charge wasn’t until the following month. Thus, this was more a case of a new manager Fan Token bounce than an on-pitch revival.

By the time the Hütter era began with a 4-2 win over Clermont, the $ASM token had started to level out.

Later in 2023, Napoli sacked Rudi Garcia after just 16 games in charge, replacing him with Walter Mazzarri, who had previously guided the club to the Champions League for the first time in its history in 2011. The effect on Fan Token sentiment was dramatic.

On Nov. 14, the day Mazzarri began his second stint at Napoli, the Napoli Fan Token ($NAP) was priced at $2.50. By Dec. 3 it had risen to $3.14, a gain of 25.6%. An away victory over Atalanta during this period propelled Napoli to third in the league and preceded a serious uptick in Fan Token volume and price.

Lastly, Roma’s appointment of Daniele De Rossi on Jan. 16, 2024 resulted in less of an immediate new manager bounce than an appreciable slow burn. Priced at $2.42 on the day of his arrival, the AS Roma Fan Token rose to $2.49 a month later (+2.9%) after three wins and one defeat.

Importantly, though, fans got behind club legend De Rossi, who had made 616 appearances for the club as a player, making him its second-most capped of all time. Results continued to improve as Roma went unbeaten between Feb. 18 and Apr. 6 (5 W, 2 D), and by Apr. 12, three months after his arrival, $ASR hit $5.09, meaning it had risen 110% in the De Rossi era.

Could $SPURS Be Next to React to New Manager Bounce?

Tottenham Hotspur fans will be hoping for a similarly positive outcome when Frank’s successor is appointed, but whether Spurs (and $SPURS) sees a short- or even long-term bounce depends on the calibre of the man recruited.

Thomas Frank was sacked after a dismal run of just two league wins in 17 games, so the new boss will have his work cut out. Might the arrival of a fresh perspective be enough to brighten players’ mood and improve results?

The Tottenham Hotspur Fan Token has lost 35.3% of its value since Jan. 20, with the club lying 16th in the league, just five points above the relegation zone with a dozen games to play.

Despite the gloomy outlook, Spurs improbably qualified for the last-16 of the Champions League while the likes of Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan (last season’s winners and runners-up, respectively) had to settle for the playoffs. 

If the new coach can avoid Premier League relegation and guide Spurs into the final stages of the UCL, the effect on the Fan Token could be significant.

Ronnie McCluskey: Fan Tokens Market Reporter