As Italy begins its campaign to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America, expectations are mounting, not just on the pitch, but in the markets as well. Fan tokens like $ITA are uniquely positioned at the intersection of sports and speculation, often reacting to shifts in sentiment and performance. With Italy off to an uncertain start and key matches looming in September, attention is quickly turning to how both the team and its token might perform.

This article explores the dynamics between Italy’s World Cup qualification efforts and the price action of the $ITA fan token. From recent volatility and trading volume patterns to technical levels and potential trading strategies, we examine how market participants could position ahead of a critical phase in both the team’s journey and the token’s trajectory.

Road to North America: Can Italy Still Make the World Cup?

Italy’s path to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, set to take place in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, is now more uncertain following a disappointing start to the UEFA Group I qualifiers. After a heavy 3-0 defeat against Norway and a hard-fought 2-0 win over Moldova, Italy sits in third place in its group, with only three points from two matches. The team, now under new management, must navigate a difficult road ahead to secure qualification and avoid missing a third consecutive World Cup.

Group I features five teams: Norway, Israel, Italy, Estonia, and Moldova. Norway currently leads with 12 points from four matches and a strong goal difference of +11. Israel follows with 6 points and one match fewer played, while Italy holds 3 points and a -1 goal difference. Estonia also has 3 points from four matches, and Moldova remains at the bottom with zero points.

Source: FIFA

To qualify directly, Italy must win all of its remaining matches, including the home fixture against Norway in November, ideally with large scorelines to increase its goal differential. Additionally, the Azzurri must rely on Norway dropping points in at least one of their upcoming games to have a chance at topping the group. If Italy finishes second, they could still reach the World Cup through the playoffs, which involve the ten runners-up from the European qualifying groups and the two best Nations League teams not already qualified.

The qualification campaign has also been marked by a sudden coaching change. Luciano Spalletti stepped down after the win over Moldova, following the backlash from Italy’s loss in Norway. The Italian Football Federation has appointed Gennaro Gattuso as the new head coach. Gattuso, a former World Cup winner with 73 caps for the national team, takes over immediately and will lead Italy through the rest of the qualifiers.

Italy’s remaining fixtures in Group I are as follows:

September 5, 2025: Italy vs Estonia
September 8, 2025: Israel vs Italy
October 11, 2025: Estonia vs Italy
October 14, 2025: Italy vs Israel
November 13, 2025: Moldova vs Italy
November 16, 2025: Italy vs Norway

While finishing first in the group appears unlikely, Italy still has a viable path to the playoffs, with several decisive matches set for early September. As attention builds ahead of the games, market interest could follow, making this a timely moment to examine the $ITA Fan Token.

How World Cup Momentum Drives Price Action in $ITA

The $ITA fan token is currently trading at a market cap of $2.7 million ($9.5 million fully diluted). Listed on a limited number of exchanges, its trading volume remains relatively low compared to more established fan tokens, particularly those tied to major football clubs.

Source: FanTokens

Lower liquidity brings higher volatility, on both the downside and upside. This dynamic was evident between late March, when World Cup 2026 qualifiers began, and the end of May, as attention around the tournament grew.

During this period, $ITA increased over 120% from a low of $0.23, with the daily RSI breaking above the 50 mark for the first time since November 2024. Daily trading volumes also rose meaningfully compared to prior months.

Source: TradingView

Fan tokens often exhibit a strong correlation with key events and competitions, and the World Cup is no exception. This relationship became especially clear in May, when $ITA decoupled from $BTC. While Bitcoin gained 15.5%, $ITA peaked with gains exceeding 120%, highlighting the token’s sensitivity to event-driven momentum.

Source: TradingView

Following that rally, however, $ITA retraced most of its gains after Italy’s mixed start to the qualifiers, losing to Norway and narrowly beating Moldova. With first place in the group now difficult to reach, short-term sentiment cooled.

Still, qualification is not out of reach. With several decisive matches ahead, renewed attention on Italy’s campaign could create favorable conditions for a bullish repricing of the $ITA token in the coming months.

Positioning Ahead of September: Key Levels and Scenarios for $ITA

Markets often respond to attention and expectations, and as Italy’s next match against Estonia approaches, increased interest could drive renewed demand for the $ITA token. Given its low market cap of $2.7 million, limited liquidity, and high volatility, a relatively small wave of speculative activity could trigger a significant repricing.

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart highlights two key price zones. The first range lies between $0.255 and $0.275, where the May rally began, and the resistance level at $0.67, which marked the local top and has remained unbroken since the start of the year. A move from the lower bound of this range to resistance would represent a gain of approximately 140%. The second range stretches from $0.67 to the psychological and historical resistance at $1.00, a level untouched since July 2024, offering an additional 50% upside from the first target.

Source: TradingView

A potential strategy would involve waiting for a revisit of the $0.255–$0.275 support zone and gradually accumulating as long as the level holds. Exposure could be increased if price begins to consolidate and move higher, with a clear invalidation on a breakdown below the support.

Initial profit-taking could occur at the $0.67 resistance, with the option to target the $1.00 level if momentum persists. Regardless of price action, a conservative approach would be to reduce or close the position in the days leading up to the Italy–Estonia match and reassess based on new developments.

Conclusion

Italy’s qualification path remains open, but uncertain, creating a window of opportunity for fan token traders ahead of the decisive matches in September. As seen earlier this year, $ITA has shown a strong reaction to event-driven momentum, with price action decoupling from broader market trends when interest spikes.

With a low market cap, thin liquidity, and historical sensitivity to football events, $ITA offers asymmetric potential for those looking to position early. While short-term outcomes depend on Italy’s on-field performance, the build-up in attention alone could be enough to drive an increase in market activity and open the door to speculative opportunities.

References

FanTokens Website | Link

FIFA.com | Link

Italy appoint World Cup winner Gennaro Gattuso as new manager. ESPN | Link

Guest Expert: Fabrizio Fossi Fiaschetti
DeFi and Digital Asset Analyst.